Bold 2024 baseball predictions

After seven years, I’m proud¹Well, maybe more like “moderately pleased.” to once again share my poorly researched and even less thoroughly considered predictions for the upcoming baseball season. It’s the closest thing this blog has to a tradition.

Technically, of course, the season is already underway. Last week’s pair of games in Korea between the Padres and Dodgers marked the official start of the 2024 MLB season, but I think we can all agree that today marks the real beginning of another year of baseball. Opening Day isn’t when your team plays at 3 a.m. in a sterile dome on another continent. Opening Day is when your team runs out onto the familiar grass²Or turf, I suppose of a major league baseball field for the first time after a long, long winter of waiting and hoping. Opening Day is when you can feel the excitement, anticipation, and endless optimism for yourself. Opening Day is when baseball becomes real again.

After today, every team will have played at least one game that matters.³Never mind, they’ve already postponed two games due to bad weather. From here on out, they all matter. It’s time again for real baseball.

It’s time to get up from my recliner in the living room and take in this beautiful view several times a week from Section 312, Row 2, Seat 7:

I’m ready.

So, without further ado, here are my 2024 season predictions:

American League

• AL East: Baltimore Orioles – Yes, they won the division with a 101 wins last year, but a scrappy young O’s team once again overcoming the three-headed beast that has dominated them for most of the past 25 years and getting out from under the Angelos family’s thumb still feels like the feel-good story of the year. I know a few Baltimoreans and I couldn’t be happier for them.
• AL Central: Minnesota Twins — I mean…I guess? Does it even really matter who stumbles their way into winning this division? No, it does not, because whoever the ALC champ is, they’re just going to get eliminated by some wild card team with 20 more regular season wins than them in the opening round of the playoffs anyway.
• AL West: Houston Astros — It’s still a two-horse race⁴Sorry, Mariners. and I still think the Astros have enough horsepower to get it done during the regular season over their older, balder, fatter brothers in Arlington.
• AL wild card #1: Texas Rangers — Despite their RSN-related cash flow issues, the loss of Jacob deGrom, and whatever is happening with Max Scherzer, the Rangers are largely returning the same squad that served them well in 2023 and should manage to stay on the Astros’ heels for most of the summer as they reap the benefits of modern air conditioning inside the world’s largest prefabricated storage shed.
• AL wild card #2: New York Yankees — They have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto; assuming that both manage to stay healthy,⁵I know, that’s a particularly big “if” in Judge’s case. that alone should get them over the bar. And if it doesn’t? Well, that’s baseball, Suzyn.
• AL wild card #3: Toronto Blue Jays — It seems like they’ve been loudly knocking on the door for a while now. They have to figure out a way in eventually, right? (Feel free to substitute the Mariners in this slot; it works just as well.)

National League

• NL East: Atlanta Braves — The Cobb County Corporate Commandos have won six consecutive titles and I don’t see anyone capable of stopping them from steamrolling their way to a seventh.
• NL Central: Cincinnati Reds — Much like their flyover country cousins in the AL, it feels like the NLC teams are just competing to finish the season at the top of the scrap heap. The Cardinals appear to have entered a Brezhnevian era,⁶Come for the low-grade baseball analysis, stay for the high-quality Cold War history references. the Cubs made some moves that feel pretty pointless, the Brewers raised the white flag when they traded Corbin Burnes away, and the Pirates…well, they’re the Pirates.⁷Much like the fans in Baltimore, those who have suffered with the Pirates over the last three decades deserve a winner. Can’t wait to see them eventually win something. The Redlegs, on the other hand, narrowly missed the postseason last year and made a concerted effort to upgrade their rotation over the winter. Every set of predictions needs at least one shot in the dark, and the Reds seem like as good a candidate as any in this lackluster collection of teams.
• NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers — If dropping over a billion dollars in free agency can’t win you a division, then what are we even doing here?
• NL wild card #1: Philadelphia Phillies — The Phils have been stuck playing second fiddle while the Braves rattled off all those NL East crowns, but I think they’re okay with that. They’ve had the same number of World Series appearances during that span,⁸Although admittedly they couldn’t seal the deal like Atlanta did. they’ve locked up Bryce Harper through the 2264 season, and this team—just like the city they play in—really embraces the underdog identity. In fact, they need to be underdogs. If you tried to give them a division title, they’d brusquely decline and then pelt you with batteries and hot dogs. This is where they belong.
• NL wild card #2: San Francisco Giants — Maybe this is just the season-ticket-holder-hoping-to-recoup-some-of-his-costs-by-reselling-ridiculously-marked-up-playoff-ducats in me talking, but I think the local squad has probably done enough to add some October games to their schedule this year. More below.
• NL wild card #3: Chicago Cubs??? — I can’t pick out a clear favorite out of the remaining teams for this final slot, so why not the Cubs? Shota Imanaga had his pick of places to play and chose Wrigley Field, so there must be something to like about Chicago. It might be the Cubs or he might just really like pickles, peppers, and tomatoes on his hot dogs.⁹Not a fan myself. In any case, I refuse to believe it will be the Diamondbacks because I still have no idea how they made it to the World Series last year. As someone who sat through many Dbacks games last year,¹⁰I swear, it felt like half of the Giants’ 2023 home games were against either Arizona or Colorado. at no point did they look like a team that was destined for greatness. I’m going to assume that they were product of prodigious luck and fortuitous timing, and not the beginning of some weird dynasty.

The Astros

As mentioned above, I think los Astros de Houston will win the AL West again, probably with an overall record somewhere around 95-67. ¹¹That’s actually their PETCOA projection at the moment, although I swear I didn’t look at it before writing this. Despite the 5-year extension for Jose Altuve and the ascendancies of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, it feels like this is the one of the last rides in this era of Astros baseball. Those shadows on the horizon are getting longer and longer. It’s getting late, boys.

The juggernaut has lumbered along just fine without Gerorge Springer and Carlos Correa, but even if they somehow manage to retain Alex Bregman next offseason,¹²Which looks improbable, but it’s going to be impossible if they never make an offer. it’s inevitable that time will catch up with this franchise at some point. It has been an incredible run and honestly one that I never imagined I would live to see. Everything that happened in 2017 will (rightly) tarnish that first championship and this entire era, but the Astros have been in the conversation for the best team in baseball for most of the past decade. It’s been a far cry from those sad, middle-of-road teams that I watched punch the clock and do little else during most of their Astrodome days.

Getting back to this year, I think they have enough left in the tank to reach an eighth consecutive ALCS and, with some luck, the World Series once again. They’ve upgraded offensively behind the plate (although admittedly I would be an upgrade over what they had going on last year if I just stood in the box with the bat resting on my shoulder) and—despite Verlander and Urquidy starting the year on the IL and Lance McCullers Jr.’s¹³It’s weird that you can’t just refer to him as “McCullers,” but you just can’t. You have to use the full name, every time. Like he’s a serial killer or something. continued aimless wandering through the desert—I believe their starting pitching will be good enough to let the offense do most of the heavy lifting. And even though Joe Espada is technically a rookie manager, his familiarity with this ballclub and experience handling a lot of the day-to-day stuff under Dusty Baker last year means he should be able to hit the ground running.

The Giants

After one of the most frustrating and underwhelming seasons in recent history,¹⁴Which is saying a lot, because outside of 2021, the Giants have been consistently underwhelming for nearly a decade now. the Giants needed to make some big changes this offseason—and to much-maligned¹⁵Seriously, the r/sfgiants subreddit has been burning him in effigy daily. president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi’s credit, they did. They added Korean phenom Jung Hoo Lee, aging but reliable veteran Matt Chapman, Cy Young winner Blake Snell, slugger Jorge Soler, and a proven manager in Bob Melvin. The additions of Jordan Hicks as a starter and Robbie Ray as someone who might contribute in the second half were bigger risks, but ones that were worth taking. And perhaps just as importantly, the Giants’ also offloaded some baggage, most notably Joc Pederson, Ross Stripling, Mitch Haniger, and—although it pains me to say it—a version of Brandon Crawford that was several years past its sell-by date.

I’m not sure if the departure of Gabe Kapler is really that big of a deal. Sure, he was a quirky guy who most of the time came across as a robot programmed to spit out statcast buzzwords and unsolicited lifehacks, but I’m not convinced that he was the mastermind behind the Giants’ frustratingly slavish devotion to platooning through out the season. That feels 100% like it came from above,¹⁶Ahem, looking at you Farhan. even if Kapler was totally drinking the Kool-Aid. I don’t know if he’s a good major league manager, but I certainly don’t feel like he was a terrible one, and I have a hard time pinning most of the 2023 Giants’ failures squarely on him.

Even with all of their struggles in 2023, the Giants were somehow still in the mix¹⁷At least on paper. until the final week of the season. Given the changes they’ve made and the relative lack of action by most of their peers, I think they’ve bettered themselves enough to reach 85 wins this year. That should be enough to get them into the third wild card spot. After that, all bets are off.¹⁸Sorry, Shohei Ippei.

The real question is what happens after this season. Will Snell and Chapman opt out of their contracts? (Almost certainly yes.) Will Farhan Zaidi finally get the hook? (I’m thinking most likely not, unless this year’s team completely implodes.) Will the Giants ever sign a top-tier free agent to a long-term deal? (Maybe, but winning some games this year would help.)

Although they made some late moves to better their odds in 2024, I still feel like this is a transition year for the Giants. A playoff appearance would be great, but real success is still at least a few years away. In the meantime, at least we have some fancy new lights to give everyone in the stands a seizure each time there’s a late-inning pitching change.

So there you go—my thoughts on the upcoming season. Of course I don’t pretend to have any sort of meaningful insight. I mean, just in the past week, we’ve had an owner die, a coup attempt in the player’s union, a massive gambling scandal erupt surrounding¹⁹But not necessarily involving. the undisputed biggest name in baseball, and even insider trading charges against four minor leaguers who cashed in on a hot tip on Del Taco stock. And we haven’t even thrown an official pitch in North America yet. Who knows what could happen between now and October?

Two nights ago at the ballpark

The season may not have started for most teams,²⁰Again, that two-game series in Korea makes everything awkward. but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been any baseball happening. Every year, the Giants and Athletics conclude spring training with a pair of games back here in the Bay Area—one in Oakland and another in San Francisco. Tuesday night was the annual exhibition at Oracle Park.²¹I suppose it could have been the last such game if the A’s follow through on their plans to leave Oakland after this season.

It was good to be back at the ballpark, even if the atmosphere was a bit lacking. The announced attendance was 27,000+, but in reality there were certainly way fewer than 10,000 actually in the stands. That’s not surprising and shouldn’t be seen as any kind of referendum on the current state of Giants fandom—a completely meaningless game starting at 5 p.m. on a Tuesday isn’t the most compelling draw.

There’s not much point analyzing a spring training game too deeply. People played, things happened, concessions were consumed. All in all, it was a good practice run for the real thing, which unfortunately won’t happen here until April 5.²²The Giants almost always start the season on the road at their own request, as they prefer to play their final games of the season at home.

The highlight of the evening was the final bow for fan favorite Pablo Sandoval. Having been out of the league since 2021, the 37-year-old²³The age at which ballplayers are considered old makes me feel like Methuselah. Sandoval was never a serious contender for making the roster, but the Giants were kind enough to let him come back for one last game in San Francisco. After entering the game as a defensive replacement in the top of the 6th and striking out in the bottom half of the same inning, Kung Fu Panda made it back to the plate for one final at-bat in the bottom of the ninth. He battled his way to a 2-2 count and then came up with a bat-shattering single over the head of the opposing second baseman.²⁴Who, to be honest, wasn’t trying all that hard to stop it.

It was a good way to end the evening and, almost certainly, the major league career of a guy who made the most of what he was given and became a beloved figure for an entire generation of Giants fans. Good job, Pablo.

• 1
  Well, maybe more like “moderately pleased.”
• 2
  Or turf, I suppose
• 3
  Never mind, they’ve already postponed two games due to bad weather.
• 4
  Sorry, Mariners.
• 5
  I know, that’s a particularly big “if” in Judge’s case.
• 6
  Come for the low-grade baseball analysis, stay for the high-quality Cold War history references.
• 7
  Much like the fans in Baltimore, those who have suffered with the Pirates over the last three decades deserve a winner. Can’t wait to see them eventually win something.
• 8
  Although admittedly they couldn’t seal the deal like Atlanta did.
• 9
  Not a fan myself.
• 10
  I swear, it felt like half of the Giants’ 2023 home games were against either Arizona or Colorado.
• 11
  That’s actually their PETCOA projection at the moment, although I swear I didn’t look at it before writing this.
• 12
  Which looks improbable, but it’s going to be impossible if they never make an offer.
• 13
  It’s weird that you can’t just refer to him as “McCullers,” but you just can’t. You have to use the full name, every time. Like he’s a serial killer or something.
• 14
  Which is saying a lot, because outside of 2021, the Giants have been consistently underwhelming for nearly a decade now.
• 15
  Seriously, the r/sfgiants subreddit has been burning him in effigy daily.
• 16
  Ahem, looking at you Farhan.
• 17
  At least on paper.
• 18
  Sorry, Shohei Ippei.
• 19
  But not necessarily involving.
• 20
  Again, that two-game series in Korea makes everything awkward.
• 21
  I suppose it could have been the last such game if the A’s follow through on their plans to leave Oakland after this season.
• 22
  The Giants almost always start the season on the road at their own request, as they prefer to play their final games of the season at home.
• 23
  The age at which ballplayers are considered old makes me feel like Methuselah.
• 24
  Who, to be honest, wasn’t trying all that hard to stop it.